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Quantitative Approach to Football

It seems football coaching is like investing....Irrational.

To maximize the expected scoring for your offense, teams should much more often go for it on 4th down. See below for recommended 4th down actions:


For a detailed explanation from the Advanced NFL Stats site, see here.

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Eight Centuries of Financial Crises

What an interesting paper, via Simoleon Sense. Reinhart and Rogoff from Harvard wrote a paper titled "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," analyzing the causes and outcomes.

Check it out here.

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Investment Fads and Bubbles

I don't particularly understand this casual use of the word "bubble." It describes every asset class or fad that comes along where the prices or beliefs exceed the facts and fundamentals. In fact, bubble in many cases is more dramatic term for fad or theme. Are we in a Twilight bubble? Is this a gold bubble? What about a healthcare legislation bubble?

Most every investment theme has its day in the sun. They are not all bubbles, or unrealistic, but there are always people that get more excited about an investment than is warranted.

Stop calling them bubbles, and realize that all trends come to an end. Trends have always been with us, and your job as an investor is to try and ride them to profits.

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